We will all learn of the results by tomorrow, but exit polls are divided on which party will come out ahead. The BJP or the Grand Alliance. I cannot understand why it shakes our financial market, but it does. Bihar is economically one of the most backward states in India, and it probably produces the maximum number of civil and public servants, not to forget the numbers that join the army and police forces. Bihar also contributes a very high percentage of farm workers and vehicle drivers. Does the possible defeat of the BJP there signal the downturn of the Modi Government at the center? Or, does the possible victory of the Grand Alliance signal the resurgence of corrupt politics? (The key members of the Grand Alliance were sworn enemies at one point, where one blamed the ill fortune of Bihar on the other).
Modi has 4 more years to prove himself and with a majority in the center there is no threat if his party wins or looses this State. Morale buster it may be, but in a way it will send the right message to the PM's ears. Real People (the majority) are unhappy with his Party if not with him or his cabinet. I personally feel a few of the attention seeking junior ministers need to be educated by our former PM to keep their mouth shut.
Grand Alliance wins. In that case, the State will not get the billions promised by the PM on some pretext or the other. Honestly the ruling party at the Center should not be allowed to make dole statements at election time to boost its own chances for winning. It would also tell the PM that people of Bihar maybe economically backward but not mentally. They honestly don't believe that he would send the dole anyway just like he has failed to keep his many promises. I don't even think it is the promises of good days the people are worried about. It's the bad days that have followed in terms of price of food commodities. Yes, improving the image of the Nation and attracting foreign capital is a must and the PM has been doing a great job, but the world is not deaf dumb and blind to the nation's internal shortcomings. Food inflation, intolerance, crime, dissatisfaction are all on the rise.
But why is D-Street worried now? Has the industrial base represented in the BSE top 100 list based its fortunes of a "Resurgent Bihar"? Or are the Bears just happy to use any excuse to short the market?
I think it has nothing to do with Beef or Bihar. The market has been spooked by the Halloween and Thanks Giving holidays along with the indecisive US Fed on rate rise, the last resembling a "cry wolf" story. But the real threat to the market are the drought, the shaky m-comm market, the bad state of real estate, the falling industrial numbers, rising imports and falling exports, higher corruption (despite measures to curb it); well there is long list, but these matters are not as consequential to the present regime like Beef and Bihar.
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