With Right Intent Get Wrong Results

I guess the news mongers do not have too many good story leads now that the Mukherja couple is back on the front pages after a hiatus of a couple of weeks. The twist, it is the husband who is now in the spotlight, dammed by the evidence provided by his own son to incriminate the step mother. He did it for what he believed were the right reasons, but the result went all wrong, as it often happens with celebrated people.

Modi echoes Aamir Khan’s sentiments, 

says he’s already living outside India because of intolerance

Take the example of Mr. Aamir Khan. He expressed his personal view on “intolerance” at the Indian Express RNG awards ceremony for excellence in journalism. Without having understood the entire context of his statement, a part of an on stage interview, the hounds of politics and performers began to bay for what they are suggesting is his unpatriotic blood. I don’t know if the reaction to his statement took such an exaggerated turn because he is the second “Khan” to voice it, the first being Mr. Shah Rukh Khan (he subsequently denied his statement). Maybe there was ascare in their mind that the growing tribe of famous Khans would also like tooffer their own angle to this topic, which may well end up as a verbal epidemicof sorts.  I also don’t know if Aamir intended it, but he must have joined the super elite Rs. 1,000 crore club for free media publicity, even if most of it was negative.  Maybe an enterprising movie maker may be prompted to make a movie titled “My name is is Khan and I am not as tolerant of intolerance."

In defending India’s tolerance quotient, most of the voices being heard are doing just the opposite. Unfortunately, it is the world that is watching, reading and hearing all that is going on in India, and I don’t think anyone is finding this “Tamasha” (performance) one bit tolerable (just like the movie).

Speaking of global view on intolerance, a nation’s right to defend its boundary may have put the world at the cusp of a third world war. Turkey’s shooting down of a Russian fighter bomber in what it called an air space incursion sent shock waves around the world.  Guess the whole world must have celebrated Thanksgiving on the 27^th of November (a day after USA) for Russia showing extreme tolerance in not having roasted Turkey.  I don’t think Turkey’s leadership feels the same way.

The Russian fighter was on its way to bomb some ISIS targets in Syria, and if press is to be believed, target information is being exchanged between Russia, France and USA. Obviously, Turkey being a member of NATO should have been in the know of it too. At least Mr. Putin thinks so. Russians claim that the real reason for Turkey to act the way it did is because of its trade collaborating with ISIS. That’s a strong accusation, but one that would appear plausible based on the limited trade routes available to ISIS for pushing oil in the grey market.  

While beef, has been the major culprit for sparking off the debate on the visible intolerance levels in India, bombing of civilians has been responsible for festering intolerance in the Middle East and Europe. The downing of the Russian Metrojet over Egypt and serial bombings in Paris, both claimed by ISIS has created a very scary situation in the region with an obvious economic and political consequence for the whole world. One that will make the global grief inflicted by Greece and China appear as mere blips on history’s timeline.

I think ISIS is the only entity that has acted with wrongintentions and got the right results for itself. The bombers of Metrojet and Paris were carried out primarily by ISIS agents of Egyptian and European origin. Yet, rather than weeding out the sleepers within, the international military effort has been directed to weed out the ISIS brains based in Iraq and Syria. The over destruction of both right and wrong targets there have impacted innocent civilians, who in turn, braving all perils – death included,  are rowing their boats to the very nations that bomb them. The refugee influx in turn is driving up resentment ( I call it plain and simple intolerance) within the nations accepting them for socio-economic-political reasons. The resentment levels have reached a point where the people belonging to the world’s largest faith – Islam – have now to justify that all Muslims are neither terrorists nor ISIS supporters on social media and other forums.

There is a hope in the minds of those who have donned the black uniforms that someday soon this growing intolerance between the Muslim and Non Muslim world will reach a flash point, intentionally or accidentally throwing humanity back into a dark age like the period of the crusade.  We are pretty close to that point.

Incidentally, the beef issue seems to have been given the hiatus for now. Maybe it did not serve any purpose after the Bihar elections.  The issue going forward in Bihar is booze. The new CM wants to ban it. Going by trending news, even the intolerance issue may give way to a debate on the Nation’s Constitution on the subject of “Secularism”. In all this mess, there seems to be one sane voice, finally, that of the Prime minister. He conveyed that he would like to administer the Nation through consensus rather than forcing the majority view. Now that is a truly tolerant and secular act. But, it too seems to have been prompted with the right intent but may end up with a possible wrong result.

I don’t know how media will interpret it in the days to come. Until then the Mukherjea saga will serve more as a commercial ad break. 

Cheers MARRIOTT star*WOOD

Within 24 hours of the press breaking the news about the Starwood buyout by Marriott, SPG (Starwood Preferred Guest) members (me included) received an email captioned "Important SPG Announcement". I thought, being a member, I would get one from Marriott Rewards too, but did not. Maybe as the buyer, it expected it's members to know that there is no change except a lot more options  in the near future.

I like the Ritz and JWs, but St.Regis and W are really the ones close to my heart. I thought it was good of Starwood to have shared the news, and the benefits that the members will accrue, by staying loyal to this new hospitality Hercules that now controls 1.1 million rooms in 5500 hotels across some 30 brands spanning 100 countries. Correctly stated somewhere, the number of members (loyalty program) in the combined entity may not change much as most of the 54 million Marriott members (me included) may also be part of the 21 million SPG members list. But as a member, am I really delighted with this Goliath?

I have always found the Marriott program a miser when it comes to rewarding members. SPG at one stage (until a couple of years back) was ahead in the game, and my number one choice. Lately, I have not used it much, as it has slipped in its generosity too in terms of stay points, rates and redemption offered. My first choice today is Accor. It offers a discount based on tier to its members. I also like the fact that Sofitel offers the second room being booked under the same name at a 50% discount for use by family. I wish all hotel brands would follow that guideline for rooms that restrict occupancy to a maximum of  3 persons.

If the news of Paris attacks had kept the entire world in a debate mode, the buy out news on the 16th must have put the global hospitality fraternity in a state of contemplation on the several what - how - who - when - where will questions. I am sure the management of both these companies would have thought it through. But, as always, those least concerned are always the most inquisitive. I read up all the news I could. What interested me though was the fact that the buyout cost Marriott US$ 12 billion to create the world's largest hotel chain; whereas the former No. 2 (now No. 3) - Hilton was acquired by Blackstone for US$ 27 billion. Hilton is half the size of Marriott-Starwood combo in terms of rooms controlled. Maybe this comparison does not meet the apple to apple standard - based on assets owned versus managed; but in this day and age of going asset light,does the number of hotels owned really matter? What really does matter is the marketing and management infrastructure along with the loyal customer base and free cash flows for brand, product and market development. This deal scores on all fronts. If there is a negative, then it would be the merger of cultures. Going by history, merging brands is nothing new to both companies and I am quite sure that the integration would be pretty smooth too.

Would the hospitality world see more consolidation? Is it the brick and mortar response to go into a lean mean mode versus the light weight high valuation Unicorns disrupting the tranquillity of this segment? Or is this a sign of overcrowding in correction mode? All interesting thoughts to keep us strategists busy till end of year.

More interesting from the India perspective was the fact that 3 Chinese companies were in the fray for buying out Starwood. There are quite a few Indian homegrown brands looking for an exit, and maybe the owners should book a seat to the neighbouring Country asap and speak with the prospective buyers. Acquiring Indian hotel brands would not cost those companies much more than the rounding off error on their balance sheets. In the next few years, China may become India's largest tourist partner, and this suggestion would well work as a win win for all concerned.

With some 13,500 rooms across 13 brands present in India, the combined entity edges out Taj (13200 rooms) to grab the pole position in the Indian hotel circuit. Much of the inventory held by it is in the luxury and mid market space, and future growth too would probably stay in that band. Ahem! just to shake the podium a bit, as per Forbes, OYO rooms controls 14,000 room across 100+ Indian cities. But for most old school hoteliers in India, OYO does not count; just like AirBnB's inventory of 1.5 million units across 190 Countries in 30,000 Cities and Towns does not matter to big hotel brands.

But then again, with the "IndiaStory" dimming once more with the global slowdown, I wonder if OYO will be able to sustain its growth speed? With the Venture Capital money taps dripping now, based on failure by most investments to meet milestones; the street is already talking of "Unicorn" deaths, and OYO's name happens to be in that list. I can also see signs of potential capital squander (just like what happened in the dotcom and realty segments in 2000 and 2007 respectively) with funded companies using money to do allied businesses rather than focus on building core strength.

Talking about money power, ITC hotels is one that has tons of  long money for deployment. It has had a long and happy stint with Starwood and a shorter (not so happy) association with Marriott. Now that the equation has changed, will it stay or exit the association? If it does exit then the room count may once again need to be computed to see who stays number one. Consolidation may actually be the way forward for the industry. If the industry agrees to that philosophy, then, will cash rich ITC look at buying out Indian hotel chains in the luxury or mid market segment?  Possibly. Would chains like Leela and Lalit be open to mergers with each other or with ITC and/or Oberoi? Guess no chance. Taj's finances are not at its best to be an acquirer at the moment. It is on an asset sell off mode and on the path of following the sell and manage model. In the last 20 years, none of the Indian hotel chains have been successful in creating a remarkable presence overseas. To add some salt to the wound, the growth of the big 5 Indian brands in the native market too has been slower than that of the foreign brands and emerging home grown ones. Lethargy to change or just too comfortable or run out of steam? It's time for some serious think through within the industry before the players fall over each other.  But why am I discussing this?

For now, it's time to say CHEERS to this marriage of two greats. Looking forward to some bubbling times ahead.

On Air with AIB - The Joke's on Us.

Fortune truly favours the brave. It was the start of 2015, and the AIB (All India Bakchod) team nearly got roasted themselves with various factions demanding their arrest or severe punishment following a  very controversial "Roast" hosted by them. There was nothing really controversial, and nothing really there for anyone to jump in their seats either. But, it did upset many. Maybe, it was our first tryst with intolerance. In this case what one could or could not laugh at. If the humour in the roast was classified as vulgar and needed strict censoring, then most Bollywood movies would be abridged to a 30 minutes run at best. Well, the AIB boys just sat back and had the last laugh as the matter kept hogging news space for quite some time after the event, and let's not forget the the millions of hits the show got on social media.

Can you believe this news item dated October 15, 2015:

AIB Roast: Seven months on, Mumbai Police to call Ranveer Singh, Arjun Kapoor and Karan Johar for questioning 

Well, the AIB team should not be complaining one bit. As a recognition of its bravery to take on the system comically, and ability to garner support from much of the youth population, the mobile and internet channel of Star TV "Hotstar" has signed it for a weekly news parody show "On Air with AIB". The theme is comedy in tragedy. My teens are already hooked on it, and while I am not the biggest fan, I do keep up with the episodes. The topics highlighted are right and the humour tame enough to be laughable yet keeping the boys out of what they are best at - getting into trouble.



If I was a sooth, I can for certain say that in a year or so, AIB would be eligible to form its own political party. All they have to do is have one of them arrested and the next thing you know would be a massive protest, candle light vigil, hunger strike, invitation to them by various politicians to join them, news channels and media covering them on main stream TV and national maybe international newspapers, human rights commission and NGOs running a save AIB campaign. Possibilities are endless. They are already giving the ugly eye sore posters and billboards put up by "chamchas" (ass kissers) of various politicians looking to climb the party ladder. At least, the AIB posters are humourous.

If the AIB team is harbouring such an ambition; that is, climbing the political center stage, then it would have to push people to take action on the issues being highlighted and not just laugh it off. Else, at the end of the day, the Joke is on us, and if we haven't already realized it, we are also being readied for a roast in the times to come. I read this article appearing on:

Nov 15 2015 : The Times of India (Mumbai)

SWAMINOMICS - India is more sensitive now, not more intolerant

by SWAMINATHAN S ANKLESARIA AIYAR

Interesting read, but I think, by and large we have become sensitive and intolerant to the wrong issues, and humour is one way of correcting it. With AAP (Aam Admi Party having joined the league of true politicians - talk big achieve nothing) maybe it's time for AIB to put its best foot forward. 

All in the family.

I have some very fond memories of Diwali. Back then (I am talking about the early to late 70's) noise and air pollution were not much of a concern. Fire-crackers were very basic and not too expensive, designed to make either lot of sound or flash a lot of light. Either way lots of fun. A week before Diwali, the entire extended family had to congregate at my eldest Uncle's apartment for a pre-Diwali dinner. It wasn't much effort, the entire family lived in the same apartment building. It was that day of the year we all looked forward to. He was the family patriarch, and calling him "DAD" was not just a prerogative for his kids alone; all his nephews and nieces had that God's given right as well, and we all called him that till his last day.

Post dinner, he would take his seat with all us cousins around him. Then the huge boxes of fire crackers would be opened up and distributed to all 15 of us (including his own kids). We had our own real Santa Claus. The distribution was done equitably based on age. He did not discriminate between any of us. The younger ones got the safer stuff and the elders the nasty stuff. Once we kids got our share, we would run a side trade between ourselves. We were a business family after all. Some liked the rockets, others the bombs. But we all ended up going to bed very happy and ready to celebrate the week ahead. Being in a joint family was so much fun. There was no need for other friends if  we did not care to have one.

As time passed, we as a  family grew wealthier. Thanks to my Uncle's vision and the efforts of his brothers to make real the vision, we escaped the lower middle class rung and climbed up to be counted in the A - list of the City's real estate and hospitality world. Something else changed. My Uncle's attitude towards his own brothers, as well as nephews and nieces was no longer the same. From being partners and family, his brothers (including my father) were looked upon as a grudging burden. Over time, the happy traditions were lost and it was plain business from then on, the relations inequitable, which in turn ended up in an out of proportion family feud which took 14 years to cure. To be fair, no one person could be blamed, but the inability of the elders to sit in a room for greater than five minutes before raising a storm did us all in. Finally, after years fighting dirty laundry in Courts, attempted mediation, forced counselling, it was the second generation that slowly and amicably cleaned up the situation at a very great cost -  the break up of the family, the business, and each faction slipping into a non relevant status in the social and influencing circles.

Bad as it may sound; from my point of view, at least a large part of the surviving family, get back together once again, on more occasions than just Diwali, to celebrate life. Good to have the family back.

Last week, I was invited to attend a discourse on managing family businesses by two gurus who have authored a book on the subject. The book titled "Indian Family Business Mantras" by Peter Leach and Tatwamasi Dixit expresses the logical treatment of the subject from a western perspective and polishes it with the spiritual wisdom of the east. It took the two some 5 years to complete the book; a clear reflection of the many disagreements the two may have had on the content; almost mirroring the disagreements that crop up in family businesses itself on how it should be run. How could I say no? It was a subject that had impacted me, and I wanted to know if we could have handled it differently. Or, is it a big money disease that hits every successful family with bad results.

At the venue, I was told by the host that there would be no alcohol or non vegetarian food served. I thought that it was some kind of precaution being taken so as to not offend the growing tribe of intolerant. Yes India is no longer one big happy secular family, but that's a different story. The host corrected me. That was not the real reason. Rather, it was an instruction (not a request) from both the authors, as it was part of their own belief system not to attend events that served either or both. Apparently, the eastern spiritual philosophy had prevailed on the west on this count. Now here is something that the RSS could proudly showcase in their defense (or offence).

Honestly,  I found the discourse a bit of let down. Maybe I was expecting something more than what I heard. Or, maybe it had to do with the fact that some of the guests had arrived late, and as a result the whole program had to be rushed. This is another aspect of eastern culture that always beats the western value of "be on time". I am not really accepting of this being fashionably late culture, and from the looks of the presenters, I could make out neither were they.

Having heard the two, I would have otherwise dismissed most of their suggestions as - so what; but for the fact that G.M. Rao of the GMR Group swears by these two management gurus. The two of them helped him bring about a family constitution that all the members of his family can live by; and they include three generations of his family. Now that to me is one Herculean task tackled. Luckily, G.M. Rao happened to be one of the panelist, and, his simple unedited sometime unstructured responses with down to earth honesty left me impressed. He did not hide the fact that there was severe stress and friction to reach a settlement. As the head of the family, to convey his sincerity to the cause, he had to take a whole lot of painful unpalatable decisions. He confessed that ultimately it helped in binding his family together. His words brought back the painful memories I had of my own family, as the issues he spoke of were the same that blighted us. I wish my Uncle had access to such counsel in his time. Maybe our lives would have been different then. Too late on that front I suppose.I doubt if my Uncles and father would have sought such help, even if it was available to them at that time. External intervention, however sage would have been looked upon suspiciously. But then,
I have seen many professionals knowingly or unknowingly aggravate family disputes with their guidance too.

There were a few "Guru Mantras" that did strike me as valuable. In a family business, the primary objective should be the collective well being of the family first and business second. Without the first, there is no second. The greatest wealth a family business generates is the gene pool of individuals that it has to lean on, to grow and not just sustain the business. As the family grows along with the business, holding on to core objectives and distribution becomes even trickier. It is great to be a philanthropist  by the best form of good social work is to create an enterprise that engages more and more people in productive work to make them self sustaining - no business structure understands it better than family business.

At the end of the event, after all that I heard, I was in two minds about setting up a trust fund for my own kids. Better to give them some modest start up capital to blow up and hope that they learn that wealth creation process is one long hard road, and wealth destruction a quick short cut. If I do create an enterprise that is grander than my grandest vision, then my kids would have to earn the right to find a place in it. I cannot create any system to protect them for their life after mine. My learning - almost all systems set up for this purpose end up doing exactly the opposite of what they are created for. Then, what can one do for the successors? My second learning (something that I practice) - be connected to them at every phase of their life, and hope for the best. In the end wealth is every bit important, but for a family so is quality time. Unfair equation but a grim reality.

The discourse and discussion  ended, and I spotted my cousins in the audience too. The same ones I was at war with for 14 years. For us now, it's like the war had never happened. We will probably never do business together. Such a shame to have lost great partners with fantastic chemistry capability, and resources - and all in the family.

Wishing all my readers a very happy and tolerant Diwali. Have a blast and I don't mean the explosive kind.

I will spend my time reading the book.  I was told that it would be well worth my time. Who knows, I may end up writing a book on the same subject based on my own experiences.

From Beef to Bihar

The BSE (Bombay Stock Exchange) at D-Street, or Mumbai's Wall (Dalal) Street would earlier quake for two major reasons. First, a negative global event and second a major local scam. Times have changed, and today it is spooked by just about anything from Beef to Bihar.

We will all learn of the results by tomorrow, but exit polls are divided on which party will come out ahead. The BJP or the Grand Alliance. I cannot understand why it shakes our financial market, but it does. Bihar is economically one of the most backward states in India, and it probably produces the maximum number of civil and public servants, not to forget the numbers that join the army and police forces. Bihar also contributes a very high percentage of farm workers and vehicle drivers. Does the possible defeat of the BJP there signal the downturn of the Modi Government at the center? Or, does the possible victory of the Grand Alliance signal the resurgence of corrupt politics? (The key members of the Grand Alliance were sworn enemies at one point, where one blamed the ill fortune of Bihar on the other).

Modi has 4 more years to prove himself and with a majority in the center there is no threat if his party wins or looses this State. Morale buster it may be, but in a way it will send the right message to the PM's ears. Real People (the majority) are unhappy with his Party if not with him or his cabinet. I personally feel a few of the attention seeking junior ministers need to be educated by our former PM to keep their mouth shut.

Grand Alliance wins. In that case, the State will not get the billions promised by the PM on some pretext or the other. Honestly the ruling party at the Center should not be allowed to make dole statements at election time to boost its own chances for winning. It would also tell the PM that people of Bihar maybe economically backward but not mentally. They honestly don't believe that he would send the dole anyway just like he has failed to keep his many promises. I don't even think it is the promises of good days the people are worried about. It's the bad days that have followed in terms of price of food commodities. Yes, improving the image of the Nation and attracting foreign capital is a must and the PM has been doing a great job, but the world is not deaf dumb and blind to the nation's internal shortcomings. Food inflation, intolerance, crime, dissatisfaction are all on the rise.

But why is D-Street worried now? Has the industrial base represented in the BSE top 100 list based its fortunes of a "Resurgent Bihar"? Or are the Bears just happy to use any excuse to short the market?

I think it has nothing to do with Beef or Bihar. The market has been spooked by the Halloween and Thanks Giving holidays along with the indecisive US Fed on rate rise, the last resembling a "cry wolf" story. But the real threat to the market are the drought, the shaky m-comm market, the bad state of real estate, the falling industrial numbers, rising imports and falling exports, higher corruption (despite measures to curb it); well there is long list, but these matters are not as consequential to the present regime like Beef and Bihar.

Final phase of Bihar polls: Beef back on plate as BJP eyes polarisation of votes

2015 - From Incredible India to Intolerant India

There are many foreign visitors who visit this Nation and find it incredible. There are a few who find it intolerable. Now that's something which we are not proud of, but can tolerate. Off late, a growing majority of this Nation have chosen to adopt intolerance, be it what one should eat or what one should wear or how one can express thoughts and views. Opposition to the view held by the ones with power or the stick can now equal a broken body if not death. I thought I was living in a democratic republic that allowed a person to make such fundamental choices and even express displeasure in a civilized manner.  I can't even say how any of my blogs will be interpreted. Some will agree and some disagree. But this is my space and my personal view. Tolerance is what allowed this Country to stay together as one to the point where it could be called secular. As we just witnessed, Mr. Shah Rukh Khan's view on tolerance was not tolerated by quite a few, to brand him a traitor who should be tried for treason. I personally may want him tried for treason for bad acting at times, but certainly not for saying the obvious that makes a lot of sense.



I don't understand if statements and headlines like the ones below help or hurt the intolerance cause:

BJP leader threatens to behead Karnataka CM if he eats beef - http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/bjp-leader-threatens-to-behead-karnataka-cm-over-beef-row/#sthash.4a6lXbYp.dpuf

Venom against SRK for intolerance comment spills over: Who said what

Shah Rukh Khan is Hafiz, Badal is Mandela: AAP minister Kapil Mishra

India got a new government last year. It came to power on a promise of delivering better days for "all" its people. In about just over a year; never mind the official statistics, the kitchen inflation bill has gone up a 200% or more. House prices, car prices, and other goods and services going up or down were never much of a bother as much as satisfying the primal need of a person are concerned. Food. The new government blames the situation as a legacy of the old. The old rulers calls the new even more incompetent than itself. People aligned to those in and out of power are making matters worse by inciting non issues to become major ones. So is this rise in intolerance more a case of economic frustration rather than the majority trying to put certain excesses of the various minorities in check. It may well be one is driving the other. Easier to make people fight with each other than having the entire population questioning those in the Parliament about performance. The blame has to be absorbed by all those who have been elected to represent the people and it does not matter which party they belong to.

The strategy may well work for those in and out of Power. At least for a while. It keeps the nation busy to be worried about the petty issues being blown larger than life. The problem I see is that earlier our Society was divided by religion, caste, creed; now it is being divided in a very different way.  The part of the national majority that is standing up for the rights of the minority and or the constitutional rights assured by this Nation to its citizens, constitute the celebrated, educated, law abiding and tax paying class; whereas the intolerance is festering in the under privileged class of the same majority. The friction is so high between the moderate and the intolerant voice that if not controlled will lead to a catastrophic revolution which could cause the division of the Nation itself. But the official view is:

There’s complete peace in country, no intolerance: Arun Jaitley

Media misled people on Moody’s report (on tolerance): Government - See more at: http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/media-misled-people-on-moodys-report-on-tolerance-government/#sthash.eDHfX5rN.dpuf

If that be the case, then why:

Hate speech must be punished to preserve peace, harmony: Centre to SC

Case of cat calling kettle black? Guess we have our own Nero(s) fiddling while our own Rome is burning. Welcome to the new improved worse than before Intolerant India. 

Intolerance has always existed: Niti Aayog’s Bibek Debroy
Ghulam Ali cancels his concerts in India

Indian scholars return awards to demand free speech - Al ...

THE DECISION OF A VARIED GROUP OF FILMMAKERS, AUTHORS AND POETS TO RETURN GOVERNMENT-GRANTED AWARDS AS A FORM OF PROTEST HAS LEFT OPINION DIVIDED AND INDIA'S FILM FRATERNITY FRACTURED. SUPRIYA PATHANK ASKED: "ARE WE GAINING ANYTHING FROM THAT? HAVE YOU BEEN ABLE TO MAKE A POINT THAT SOMETHING HAS CHANGED? WHOM ARE WE PRESSURISING BY THIS?"

Top Indian Scientist Returns Prestigious Award to Protest ...

Incredible India to intolerant India in 7 months? Anupam Kher hits out at Aamir Khan

"Did you (Aamir Khan) tell Kiran that you have lived through more worse times in this country & but you never thought of moving out," another tweet by Anupam Kher read.

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Welcome to Intolerant India.