Madder than a March Hare

What is it with this month of March that makes people behave like a mad March Hare? Is it the year end closing for businessmen; or filing of tax returns for the working population; or examinations for students;  or unseasonal rains for farmers; or just the arrival of the Indian summer? Shakespeare must have thought so too in his time -  to include a line “Beware the Ides of March” in his story of Julius Caesar. To me; the comic tragedy happening within the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) appears very Shakespearean too. Arvind Kejriwal has assumed hues of Julius Caesar, King Lear, Mark Anthony and possibly a few more characters scripted by Sir.William S. So skillfully has he made himself the martyr while brutally ousting his co-founders and possible competitors in AAP. He may not be a great orator but he certainly chooses his lines well and his face emotes the feeling he wants to project like a veteran stage actor. Guess it is R.I.P. Mr. Kejriwal the “Activist” and “Heil Mr. Kejriwal” the dictatorial politician from now on. The time for AAP and its followers along with the State will be as predictable as Delhi's weather for from here on. At times I think this whole drama is a great diversion from real issues that need tackling; right?

Guess creating diversions is the flavour of the month, and the Chief Minister of Maharashtra, not to be left behind;  in his infinite wisdom announced the ban on sale and possession of beef in his State. Was it a secret oath that he took at his swearing ceremony some six months back or a mad cow in his dreams that prompted this action is unknown; but it certainly made the majority of the minority communities; many in the animal kingdom; and quite a few meat loving Hindus mad at him and the BJP for announcing the ban - and for different reasons. The cost of food for the non-vegetarian consuming population went up - as the price for other meat (mutton, chicken, and pork) went up for no real sane reason (I will come to it). The animal kingdom took offense and questioned - why should only the "Guys" (Cows in Hindi) have all the fun while the poor buffaloes, goats, sheep, chicken, pigs, boars were being marched to the slaughter house? The meat eating Hindu was mad because he would have to go back to eating the more expensive vegetables (beef in comparison much cheaper).

In actuality the State had a ban on cow slaughter since 1970 and most of the meat sold under the label “beef” (and is still being sold today) is buffalo meat. Beef from cows had either to be imported from other States or overseas. So why was this issue raked up again? Also, why did the abattoirs go hopping mad at the announcement? Apparently; what the State wanted to achieve was a curb on the illegal slaughter of cows discarded by the dairy owners that were past their milking days and of no commercial use to them - in fact a liability. So, for the abattoirs these animals were virtually free acquisition and for dairy owners (most Hindu) a free means of disposal of cattle gone bad. The State could have handled this issue with better care if it had wanted to. But the "diversion" conspiracy suggests that the goal was to create a confusion to divert attention from the real issues that need tackling – right? Makes me mad.

Now the BJP too has a right to get mad; and it is thoroughly annoyed with its alliance partners in the States of Jammu & Kashmir as well as Maharashtra. Chief Minister Mufti released a hard core separatist this month and the Sena opposed the land acquisition bill. The amount of headline noise in the news on both issues must have made our PM mad. To begin with; he is already having problems curbing the "insane" within his own circle of influence that are making ugly statements that have given rise to a spirit of religious, caste and creed hate divide denting the image of a secular governance that the PM has being trying to project. None of his social schemes seem to be working well even though they may have been well intended. And the economy; despite all the big talks, is delivering very little in terms of real growth or attracting real development foreign capital. No wonder he wants to take a 3 nation vacation in April. Yes it would be great to run away from this Country of Mad Men; and right now there are millions of them. 

In the meantime, the business community is pissed off with the Finance Minister (FM) for his “Black Money Return” bill. Yes, everyone knows that nothing much will come back; but it is one more irritating bother to be attended to at the time of a financial year ending. The real culprits have done their housekeeping, and the good guys are the ones fretting over the explanations they will have to provide for perfectly legitimate transactions to the over bearing authorities. The FM is probably mad at the RBI (Reserve Bank) Governor for not dropping key interest rates as much as he would want; who in turn may be mad at the US fed for being so uncertain about when rate hikes in the US will actually happen; who in turn must be hoping mad at the European Bank on its handling of Greece and the European economy; who in turn is possibly mad at India for not releasing defense orders to France, Germany, Italy and other Euro countries; who in turn is mad at Australia for beating its blue boys black - and also taking away the world cup (which it said it would not give back);and at New Zealand (the team most Indians supported in the finals as they wore the new blue called black jerseys) for losing so tamely to Australia. Does it make sense? Possibly not – but nothing does in this mad month of March. Like, I cannot understand why most Indians are blaming actress Anushka Sharma and our cricket hero Virat Kohli for losing the world cup semi finals. Nor can I understand why a 28 year old German pilot will kill himself and 150+ people in a plane crash. Nor why a blogger is hacked to death in Bangladesh. 

Thankfully; there is a bit of sane news; one that allows me the right to express my views without fear of being trolled by the "Netalibanis" is the death of section 66A at the hands of the Supreme Court. Thanks to the fight put up by a brave young lady named Shreya Singhal. Gives me faith that all is not lost. In fact another young lady named Saina Nehwal gave India a reason to smile just after we were all sulking at loosing the cricket world cup. She took over as the No. 1 woman Baddie player in the world; the first Indian to do so. 

The Benevolent Dictator

He joined our school when I was in the 6^th grade. He stood out with his long “hippie” hair and Chinese features. Obviously; the head master could not allow such “rebellious” hair styles and asked him to cut his hair short. Three days later he was at the head master’s office to receive his “caning” for not having obeyed his instructions. He came back to class with tears in his eyes – his head sporting a crew cut. I asked him what happened. “He is Lee Kuan Yew’s brother dressed as a Priest” he told me. At that time I had no clue as to who was he referring to and on enquiry was told that he was the Singaporean Prime Minister. I also learnt that my new friend’s mother was Chinese Singaporean and that his father had moved back to India to set up a trading office in Bombay to export goods and commodities to China via Singapore.  The tryst with the headmaster did my friend good even though he hated the head master from that day on.

Mentally, I too came to think of Singapore as a terrible place to visit with the image of our mean looking head master as the PM of that Country caning anyone for littering, spitting, jay walking, traffic violation or being a general nuisance; refusing people with longish hair into the Country; and publicly shaming people who committed crimes against the State to the point of some of them taking their own lives. So, when that opportunity came for me to visit Singapore on a School trip; I refused. One of my many regrets. I did not get to visit Singapore until 1989. My first impression – I was in love with this island nation. It was clean, people obeyed traffic lights, taxi cab drivers were honest, and unlike Hong Kong then – Indians were welcome. I met up with my school friend and my first comment to him “Hey! You are living in paradise”. His retort “Yes, welcome to this open jail called paradise”. Our head masters brother from another mother; LKY was still the Prime Minister. “Can you believe it, he is now suggesting that chewing gum be banned in the Country” he laughed. This time; I did not share my disgust of this Man but started appreciating his thinking. Singapore was a disgusting stinky swampy marsh when it separated from Malaysia; populated with undesirables and a mix from China, Malaysia, Indonesia, India, as also Dutch, English and settlers from  the Western world. It was famous around the world as a haven for smugglers. I don’t think there was much of a choice in how this island Nation had to be governed if it had to be transformed in to the one that LKY had envisioned. Within 20 years, the vision was a reality. Not everyone was pleased; but not everyone ever is. It came at a price which some call repression of human rights; but I think I would be a supporter of such repression for the greater good; specially when I see what's happening in my own Country. 

Today, the word business integrity is synonymous with Singapore; one of the richest and most respected nations in the world. Everything it does becomes a world standard; be it its airport, airline, port, roadways, public transportation system, private and low cost public housing, education model, health facilities, recreational and entertainment facilities – I can keep going on. But; all is not well in paradise and the last three decades have got the people more critical of the policies initiated by the benevolent dictator LKY and then practiced by his successors. 

From an India perspective; there are many who believe that it deserves a benevolent dictator to make it a super power by 2020 or 2030 even. The danger always is that benevolence slipping into malevolence with the amount of power that gets vested into an individual. There are not many people who can be counted as selfless leaders. Mahatma Gandhi was one and he "made" India; but post independence; we needed someone like LKY to “Make India”. Sadly; the leader who could have become one was relegated to playing second fiddle by the father of our nation himself. LKY himself admitted that changing India would be several times more difficult than Singapore and he was right. India is much more complex; but I wish we could have a LKY that could change Mumbai to achieve even half of what Singapore is - except of course the unimaginably high real estate rates and growing economic disparity between the various population segments - where it beats the island Nation hands down.  

Headmaster of Singapore - Mr. Lee Kuan Yew – Rest In Peace.  

Mother India and India's Daughter

Are we like Ostriches burying head in the sand,

with good sense and sensibilities being lost in water?
In Maharashtra - beef has been banned;
and across Mother India - the screening of "India's Daughter".
Indian women asking if they are better off as cows?
since mentality of men is as rural as its "gaons". (villages)


In the serenity of Nagaland
an alleged rapist has been lynched;
looks like someone's powerful hand;
instigated an innocent's blood drenched.
The man was not guilty until proved
a decision not left to a mobbing brood.

Are these signs of dangerous times,

where truth will just end up as one big debate;

while people fearlessly indulge in crimes

forcing society to forcibly law abate?

Then would we be a civilized nation - 

or is that really a forgone notion? 

A SNAFU called “Budget India” 2015

A SNAFU called “Budget India” 2015

Now that the dust has settled and all the financial analyzers have mass mailed the good, bad and ugly of the Indian Budget for 2015; I have a smile on my face. It’s not because I am in any kind of "I told you so" mood (read my previous blog); or that any of the announced policies will help me save much on my taxes. I am pleased at the fact that the Indian Finance Minister (FM) had not been swayed by either domestic or international pressure to declare excessive reforms or giveaways or tax breaks that are great for swaying the stock markets to reach a new high and make a few investing punters excessively rich. The market did ride a wild roller coaster on budget day; and once the fine print was read with a magnifying glass, a sense of “calm” seems to have prevailed with quite a few saying "this could work". The budget presented was by and large realistic; a "patch the weak chinks" and "repair" the Indian economy one. No point in presenting a high on sound low on delivery tale to the people; though this one has some high drama built in it too.  

Budget day is an annual fun or fear day for the 1.2 billion Indians depending on which income divide that person is slotted in. The Nation seems to go into an economic uncertain phase 30 days prior to D-day as though observing some kind of an inauspicious moon phase. This year was a bit different. Rather than follow the same routine that would govern India’s financial destiny for some 365 days; the FM actually took a bold step in unfolding a road map for the next 5 years on how the Modi government intends to run the finances of this Nation. Having set the broad tone of intent, the next 4 speeches should - in my mind - be more on “Accountability” where the Country would like to hear what actions were taken and the outcome of the same with steps for course correction where applicable.

There is enough out there on the net on what this year’s budget will or aims to do for India, so there is not much that I will say about it; except that, the government seems to be sticking to a plan to revive India’s economy based on certain core “SNAFU” principles in a slow but sure fashion; namely:

1.       Safe and Socially Secure India; specially its borders, women and senior citizens.

2.       Neat Clean and Green India; be it energy, environment, streets, homes or even its economy.

3.       Accelerating India; be it infrastructure, manufacturing or agricultural growth.

4.       Financially sound India; be it its Corporate(s) or the people employed in any sector.

5.       Unambiguous India; be it its policies for inviting capital or tax laws.

(Intent being Situation Normal All Fired Up - Shame on you for thinking otherwise).

There is a better than average chance that these initiatives just may succeed to take India into an orbit of double digit growth; and hopefully the FM will not have to tweak the index year again to make his magic number happen. Why the doubt? Because many of the great initiatives the Govt. wants to put in place appear self defeating.

Let me give an example. In July of 2014, the government announced the “Sukanya Samriddhi” account as part of the “Betti Bachhao Betti Padhao” (save daughter – educate daughter) initiative to correct the gender imbalance as well as ensure a better future for girls in the Country. Rightly, no better incentive than economic to make it happen; and so the government offered 9.1% tax free interest on accounts opened by parents in the name of their daughters. But, the minute this account became part of Sec. 80C of Income Tax; it got into a pool that include pension and other tax saving investments to compete with. For this initiative to succeed, it should have been kept out of the 80C ambit with an annual investment cap that would not burden the exchequer more than required. I cannot figure out why and how this scheme is allowed for girls only up to age 10? Does the FM feel that after that age the girl child’s future is well taken care of? Further, this concept should have been stretched. It’s not just parents who need to be incentivized to bring up daughters; what about ensuring the well being of daughters-in-law? Now this is the most vulnerable class of women in most cases. Just think. On the economic front, the in-laws never really transfer or create property in the daughter-in-law’s name to keep her under “control”. If then, the daughter-in-law wants “out” of a bad marriage, she has an uphill task in getting anything. Even her parents don’t want her back. She needs some form of economic protection too.

Since I am in the advising mode; it was nice to see the FM’s encouraging policies to drive people towards saving more for their post retirement life, as well as “investing” in the increasingly expensive health insurance. There are certain extra concessions for those over age 80. No issues at all. However, in my view; people over the age of 80 should be taken out of the tax net completely. First; a person of this age has already done his/her bit in terms of serving the Nation and its economy. Not many people get to cross this age. Those who do cross are seldom in a state of health to support their own selves financially or avail the best (read expensive) medical treatment. In most cases, their children of these octogenarians see them as a liability and their living as an impediment to inheriting their valuable property; and it’s not uncommon to read stories of ill treatment and worse being meted out to the super-seniors by their very own. Now, turn them into a valuable economic asset for their family and all this may actually change. Children will ensure a happy and healthy long life of their parents and pray that they live up to a 100. Now bring the super-senior age down to 70 and virtually all our Parliamentarians would be out of the tax bracket (officially).

Indians are known to jump into the river Ganges to wash away their past sins. In the bargain, the river has become an environmental disaster. The PM has the clean up of this river as a pet project having promised it to the people of Varanasi who made sure he wins his seat from there. While the budget has a policy for its clean up in place -  how about using the fruits of the "Sins" (dirty – slush money) to clean up this and other mighty rivers that are a source of water and life for this Nation? I think the Govt. should come up with a punitive amnesty where a person can declare unaccounted wealth by investing in “Clean and Green India Infrastructure" zero interest (non discounted) bonds with a 7 year tenure which will be used for cleanup of the environment – be it water, air or land.  This would pretty much work like Cap Gain bonds where those interested in avoiding Capital Gains Tax would invest in such instruments. Else of course, pay the penal price for disclosure and legitimizing the assets. I really wonder, how would public servants declare their ill gotten wealth? Is this Country headed for a shut down if the FM is to be believed that he will spare no one? So for now at least; till there is clarity on the policy for cleaning up the underground dirty economy; a great majority of the 1.2 billion people must be shitting rocks - it’s truly a state of SNAFU (yes, that one which we all know) that most are in.

Rather than brooding over such highly intellectual matters on which my mind has little comprehension and where my voice will never be heard; let me make this blog a bit more useful by including a summary of the highlights of the Union Budget 2015-16 presented by Finance Minister Mr. Arun Jaitley with my two bits on the side:

·         No change in personal Income Tax slabs – Had the recommendations of the original DTC (Direct Tax Code) been implemented the tax base and tax compliance would have been far greater than it is today.

·         Health Insurance Premium deduction hiked from Rs. 15,000 to Rs. 25,000; for senior citizens to Rs. 30,000 – Hopefully the insurance companies will not see this as an opportunity to increase premiums substantially again.

·         Transport allowance exemption hiked to Rs. 1,600, from Rs. 800 per month – Something is better than nothing and at the lowest rung quite useful.

·         Additional 2% surcharge on people earning over Rs. 1 cr; to fetch Rs. 9,000 cr – I guess many bosses will use this stick as a carrot to keep their keymen below the magic number.

·         Wealth tax abolished – Super Sensible

·         Direct Taxes Code (DTC) dropped – It was a stillborn from day 1.

·         Rs. 50,000 deduction for contribution to New Pension Scheme – Pragmatic way to get savings up.

·         To lower Corporate Tax to 25% over next four years – Ends uncertainty.

·         GAAR implementation deferred by 2 years to April 2017 – No comments

·         Service Tax rate hiked to 14%, from 12.36% - Good and bad. Good as it makes even those who don’t pay taxes contribute and bad for those who are already paying 34%+ in taxes. It’s actually going to be 16% if the 2% Cess kicks in. So is this a precursor to a GST to be set at 16%?

·         2015-16 growth between 8-8.5%, double digit growth feasible – Promise no tweak in index year?

·         Retail inflation close to 5% by March, room for monetary policy easing – Food inflation is near 100%. Have a heart Mr, FM

·         To achieve fiscal deficit of 3% of GDP by 2017-18. Fiscal Deficit target 3.9% in 2015-16, 3.5% in 2016-17 – Requires sacking a lot of corrupt fat and tightening the belt on wasteful expenditure by those who we call “Leaders”.

·         Revenue Deficit to be 2.8% in 2015-16 – No one believes it but that’s fine.

·         Current Account Deficit for 2014-15 to be below 1.3% of GDP – I hope someone has not employed the same advisors and bean counters that Greece did to get it into the EU?

·         To introduce comprehensive law to deal with black money – Good – great – but sadly the only way to do it successfully is an amnesty scheme.

·         Benami property transaction bill to tackle black money transaction in real estate soon. – With most builders-developers supposedly being backed by… I am sure it’s obvious; will this really happen?

·         100% deduction for contribution to Swachh Bharat, Clean Ganga projects – How will these initiatives be monitored and by whom? Seems like a lot of good money will flow into the toilet and flow out into international waters through the rivers making them dirtier.

·         GST to be put in place by April 1, 2016 – if so, why was excise duty not matched with rate of service tax right away?

·         Internationally competitive direct tax regime to be put in place to incentivize saving – All ears.

·         Rs. 25,000 crore for Rural Infrastructure Development Bank. – Superb

·         Rs. 70,000 crores to Infrastructure sector – Does anyone believe that with hounding of corporate India with a black money and forex witch hunt this will be achieved?

·         Tax free bonds for roads, railways, irrigation projects – Interest rate will decide if this will be a success.

·         GST and JAM trinity (Jan Dhan Yojana, Aadhaar and Mobile) to improve quality of life and to pass benefits to common man – LOL – really – how? Fake accounts – fake aadhar – and corrupt mobile men?

·         Housing for all by 2020 – Is someone assuming a static population?

·         Govt. to create universal social security system for all Indians. – What about the illegals?

·         Sovereign Gold Bond, as an alternative to purchasing metal gold – For a person still wanting to keep money hidden – METAL rules.

·         New scheme for depositors of gold to earn interest and Jewelers to obtain loans on their metal accounts. – Then will the Sovereign Gold Bond earn interest too?

·         To develop an Indian gold coin, which will carry the Ashok Chakra on its face, to reduce the demand for foreign coins and recycle the gold available in the country – At the end of the day, Gold will still have to be imported for minting these.

·         Forward Markets Commission to be merged with the Securities and Exchange Board of India – Good, more synergetic regulatory agencies should be merged.

·         PAN card mandatory for purchase above Rs 1 Lacs – Actually, spends on credit and debit cards made mandatory for all goods and services priced above Rs 25K and for a good measure the Govt. may throw in extra reward points. 

Take for Granted - At your own peril.

Cricket World Cup 2015. India first beat the stronger Pakistan team by a huge margin. It then beat South Africa; a much stronger team than even Pakistan more convincingly. It was just not supposed to happen. Nor was Ireland supposed to beat superior West Indies; and, Zimbabwe and Afghanistan were not really teams to give South Africa and Sri-Lanka a scare (respectively). But, all of it did happen, and today, no team is willing to take any further match with any opponent - strong or weak - for granted. If they do - its at their own peril as Mr. Ravi Shastri (The Indian team manager) warned at one of the post victory talk sessions.

The Indian Rail Minister Mr. Suresh Prabhu is not taking the train passenger for granted either. At the cost of allowing the stock market to take a big dive, the Modi government has in my mind rightly decided to improve the overall rail experience from a passenger point of view. Rather than increasing the number of train services or dropping fares as a populist strategy would suggest it has stuck to improving speed, safety, security, hygiene, sanitation, better - faster - more transparent ticketing, better catering on trains and at stations, better access to physically challenged and senior citizens, upgrade of technology and infrastructure and above all net impact on environment as top priority in the Railway budget 2015 presented on 26th of Feb. 2015.

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I am particularly delighted that for the first time there is a concrete vision for technology upgradation and modernisation of the Railways.

PM Narendra Modi

Members sitting in opposition called it a "dream budget" - of course sarcastically as for them it contains a lot of imaginary concepts that can never be implemented. I guess the lack of imagination is exactly why they are sitting in opposition today. For India, the railway tracks are the blood vessels as much as the trains the blood that flow within. And, like clogged blood vessels can cause all sorts of damage internally so also is the case with the Railways. India needs to modernize this vast infrastructure for the sake of its agricultural and industrial health and hence the economy. The people of India too have taken the health of the railways for granted and the perils of the same stand out sadly in the news. Like for the railways, I wish the government would even present a budget for Air-India too either as part of a greater public transport budget or independently if it really wishes to change the way the airline functions.

In a couple of days, 28th of Feb. to be precise, the Finance Minister will disclose the first real financial budget of the Modi government. There are a lot of expectation riding on it and most of them are contradictory. A lot has been written by financial experts in terms of advice and wish lists to the FM, so I shall skip that - keeping with the adage "Never give advice - intelligent don't need it - fools will not take it". The FM has some very sage people guiding him; but, if the Government plays the peoples card - the much needed foreign resource mobilization process will suffer;  and if it follows a fiscal discipline dictated by would be foreign and domestic lenders - then the people will get ticked off.  Will it cheer people or reduce them to tears is something that I cannot say for certain; but going by the "track" record, I feel the stock markets in India are in for a free fall -  as it will lack the populist pleasing measures that the masses are expecting. That would actually be a good decision if the central government can follow that up by going on an expenditure cut diet.

Mr. Modi has in the last few days earned more of my admiration. To start with, he has put the States in the forefront and has decided to share a higher percentage of tax collection with them. Next, he has rightly inducted Arvind Kejriwal in the NITI panel as the head of Delhi State. Next his party reached an agreement with the PDP in Kashmir on two very contentious issue - Article 370 and AFSPA. Finally, decided to move ahead with the land reform bill despite the political opposition. For many, these are all selfish acts, but for me - brave moves that will ensure the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax next year; bring in a higher degree of trust and cooperation between States and the Center (keeping politics aside); allow for a stable governance in Kashmir; and in time bring better accountability on land management. The government is clearly sending out a message that running of the Nation and running of political agendas need to put on two separate tracks. If this be the case, then can the government be brave enough to bring agricultural income under the tax ambit? It is one of the most abused tax loop holes in the Country.

It's not going to be easy for the government to push for a hard budget either, as it may just about kick off an anti Modi wave. The Common Man is fighting for his day to day survival. The inflation he has been hit with on food and essentials is close to a 100%. Keeping on moving the tax exempt slab up and up is not the best way to go in the long run as opposed to bringing in a greater number of people into the tax net. The Government will have to find a way to walk that tight rope as it cannot afford to take the bulk of India's current tax paying population - which is neither the super rich not the relatively poor - for granted. If it does, it's at its own peril.

Simple SMART strategy

India maintains the fourth largest armed force in the world at a “spend” that accounts for nearly 2% of its GDP. That percentage translates to some US$ 45 billion for the year for the year 2014-15. Despite spending some US$40 billion on hardware acquisition from 2009 on; making it the largest importer of defense equipment from around the world; the strength of the air, sea and land forces has been progressively worsening. To correct it, India has charted out a program for spending some US$ 100 billion in the next 10 years for defense modernization which includes aircrafts, helicopters, ships, submarines, aircraft carrier, howitzers, tanks, missile systems, and the list goes on.

The Prime Minister and his men that run India now are keen that bulk of the hardware be made in India under technical (and not assembling) collaboration from the best in the world to make India’s defense sector a more self reliant job creator while reducing foreign exchange outflow. India also wants to buffer itself from geo-politically leveraged, fractured, and unreliable supply relationships that it has experienced in the past with the Russians, Americans and Europeans in the past. Procurement has also been hit by India’s never ending procurement process as well as unearthing of “kick backs” and numerous defense related scams. India’s own experiments in this sector through its public sector undertakings; well the less said the better. With the government making way for allowing a higher Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in privately set up defense manufacturing; a host of Indian companies are making plans and announcements for this sector.

Aug 05 2015 : The Times of India (Mumbai)

Anil to build defence choppers near Nagpur

Just a few days back, Mr. Anil Ambani made an announcement of his group wanting to set up a defense “SMART” city to set up several companies that would bid for supplying equipment to all 3 corps of the armed forces. His group is making a bid for the supply of close to 500 helicopters required by the Army and Navy primarily for reconnaissance and surveillance.  It’s a different matter that a couple of days later, one of his senior executives from his power company has been picked up along with officers from India’s top 5 energy companies for investigation; for allegedly purchasing stolen “classified” information from the petroleum ministry. Anyway, I wish I knew Mr. Anil Ambani. I would have advised him to give up his hunt for the 5,000 acres or so required for this dream project if he wants to really achieve his ambition of establishing his group as a significant defense player in the next 5 years. Instead, I could have charged him a very fat fee and would have drawn his attention to the troubled “Bengal Aerotropolis” at Durgapur. (Aug 5 2015 update - could he have read this?)

The idea was conceived back in the “Acche din” (good days) of 2006-7 as an integrated aviation “industrial township” (in the new government parley – Smart City) occupying 2300 acres including a defunct WWII airstrip. Singapore’s Changi airport saw merit in the project and decided to back it with money as equity. It was to become an industrial, logistics, technology hub to be built around a world class airport that was strategically placed between 2 – 5 hours driving distance from some very important industrial towns of the East and in time become an alternative or even a competitor for Kolkatta international airport.  I came across it first in 2011; when an international property consultant asked my Company to explore the idea of putting up an affordable-budget hotel as part of the airport facility. The project made a lot of sense and I too like Changi was swayed to explore the option. But, the terms offered for the land and structure lease would not have made sense even in Kolkatta; leave alone an airstrip that would at best attract 5 to 6 commercial aircraft landings a day in the first few years of operations. That is, as and when air operations actually got started. I argued with the Changi boys that any fixed rent contract (forget what they were asking) would not work and the reasons for it. And so, the deal never went through. No regrets. Since my meeting in 2011, the project has gone through a fair bit of turbulence, including trouble between the founding partners.  The airport at Aerotropolis has now set a deadline to open itself by March 2015, a delay of some 24 months. Everything else planned around the airport is still at “green field” stage. The demand drivers for a hotel at least – missing. Number of flights planned initially – 1 a day.

 The Chinese joke that Indian project execution skills have not changed much since Emperor Shahjehan’s time. “It took him 20 years to build the Taj Mahal; our Emperors would have built it in less than 2” is what I heard from a Chinese friend of mine. It did annoy me, but, it is also the truth that projects in India do suffer from a much higher development risk – be it regulatory, environmental, financial, and many a times from the fact that those leading the project have very little experience in executing the same. Even ADAG (Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group)  has suffered in its build out of the Mumbai Metro and New Delhi Airport Express projects; as have GVK, GMR and many other companies like them building out mega projects – even though at the end the delivered projects are world class. Fortunately, this project now has land, permissions, an operating airfield, airport all in place. Better still, it is in private hands which include a sector smart partner like Changi. Should a group like ADAG take up leadership of the development here on; Aerotroplois could actually become an example of a successful ‘Smart’ theme city.  

The talk of creating new SMART cities is catching momentum. Just yesterday (22nd Feb); I read that the Ministry of Shipping is planning 12 SMART naval cities at each of the major ports of India at a cost of US$ 100 billion investment. The point is that there are several cities and towns that are languishing like ghost towns across India. All of them saw their development start during the real estate boom of 2006-7. All of them had great themes guiding their development. They were called industrial cities, SEZs, processing zones, logistic hubs and every creative name under the Sun. Now, they may as well call themselves SMART cities as that's the flavour of the month. Instead of seeing new developments languish why not spot the winners and see their development through?   Did I hear that my consultancy cheque is in the mail? It is a simple and SMART strategy where everyone comes out a winner.  

FSI – does it mean Foolish Silly Ill-planned?

 A few days back, I heard a financial consultant Faye D’Souza on Radio one 94.3 talking about how might the City and State utilize the 1080 acres being released by the Mumbai Port Trust (MbPT) for the betterment of the City; and the resultant impact on real estate prices on the eastern part of Mumbai. It is quite obvious that the builder lobby will try and exert pressure to get most of the land sold to them; even though the Minister for Shipping has said that the land will be reserved for creating public infrastructure – something that the City desperately needs. The last time the City heard such a promise was when the Mill lands were released and there was much talk of reserving at least 30% for increasing the green cover and 30% for social housing and infra needs of the City and those being affected – namely, the out of work mill workers. And, for them were built -  super luxury (very expensive) residential and commercial towers, 5 star hotels and glitzy malls. The original plan was to bring down the rate of housing and offices in South Mumbai; but the result was just the opposite. Prices doubled, builders made tons of money and the City got a big zero. Let’s ensure that the land is actually put to the correct use this time around, and this can only happen if the people voice themselves to put "Mumbai First"– else we will all look very “foolish” – yet again.

Anyway; the thought that struck me while hearing the program – Does this City really have an overall vision plan on how it intends to shape up in the next 20 years or each major land bank owner gets to decide what is good? Lo and behold; a couple of days later I read that the City has released its development plan 2014-34  (DP) for public debate. Never mind that it has been released in 2015 and will not be put in force until 2016. The headline I read did not focus much on the plan; but screamed out the possibility of the planning authorities granting up to 8 FSI for building construction. Floor Space Index (FSI) represents the amount of permissible construction on a plot in relation to the size of the plot. (It means the same as Floor Area Ratio or FAR used in other places).

From what I could make out of this plan, the exact FSI that a plot could attract was very arbitrary, except that, a minimum guaranteed FSI was prescribed zone wise - based on its proximity to transportation nodes and current versus projected population density. Land bank holders must have gone orgasmic with this news and builders would have called their spin doctors to figure out how their under construct buildings could take advantage of the situation; never mind if the construction would have to be stalled till the DP came into effect at the inconvenience of those who had either financed or bought premises in their developments.

I cannot understand the true rationale behind this move of offering higher FSI. What is its exact intention? Is it aimed at bringing down land prices or rates that builders would charge or improve the way buildings are made or even improve the general quality of life? Going vertical is not a bad idea. Technology today has made sure that 50+ floor buildings are no longer exceptions. In the developed world there is serious thought being given to Super Skyscraper Cities in which every building acts  as a self contained and self sufficient unit in every way including green sustainable and renewable utility concepts. Think of it; how would it be if the entire population of a ward within Mumbai were housed within a total of 50 buildings or less? 

However, going by experience, except for making this overpopulated under provided (infra and utilities) expensive island even more populated and more expensive there is nothing else that the DP will achieve. Correction, make land bank owners and builders super billionaires along with the men in power who could with a few drop of ink arbitrarily pen the exact FSI to be granted on the proposal file. A couple of months back, a friend of mine who happens to be a big investor in Mumbai real estate mentioned that such a move was on the anvil. From what I understood then, the FSI was to be linked to plot size. Bigger the plot - higher the FSI granted - but at a progressively lower building footprint based on setbacks linked with height. He drew out an approximate table which I thought made absolute sense. The move he said was based on forcing builders to consolidate the multitude of small plots to claim the higher FSI and in turn create enough open spaces for gardens, parking, road widening, laying of utility lines, and increasing light - ventilation and safety margins between 2 buildings – all of which are lacking at present in 80% of the projects under development in this City. Should redevelopment of certain plots become unviable based on the new norms; then the same could be surrendered to the City or Developers for the highest market priced compensation and the City or Developer could use it for creating public utilities needed by that area. In a way cut out any ambiguity making building proposals simpler, transparent, and remove all special loopholes that were currently being misused. 

Plot Size	Max. Ground Cover	Max FSI*	Max. Height* (Subject to Funnel Clearance from Aviation)
< 2000m2	60%	2 + 0.3 (premium/TDR)	6 X  road width
2000 - <4000 m2	55%	3 + 0.3 (premium/TDR)	8 X  road width
4000 - <6000 m2	50%	4 + 0.3 (premium/TDR)	9 X  road width
>6000 m2	45%	5 + 0.3 (premium/TDR)	10 X  road width

(Updated Table 9th March 2015 - no linkage to plot size - just focused on road width)

In all fairness the article on the DP did mention that building proposals would now be considered based on fulfillment of stricter parking, safety, environmental control and waste reduction norms. Track record again suggests that developers in general fulfill norms only on paper and reality speaks a very different story. In a City which shows little care to give way to an ambulance or fire tender or any other emergency services; ensuring adherence to norms in the taller structures can only happen if punishment for non adherence is made a lot stricter. But again, money can buy anything as evident in many high profile cases of the multitude of building accidents and fire covered in the press. I don't know how the City intends to build out its critical infrastructure of ensuring water, electricity, safety, roads without which increasing the population density, and more specifically vertically would indeed be a very "Silly" idea.

But keeping my skeptic nature aside; if the DP is a well thought out document with correct intent, then it could actually be a game changer in terms of how this City shapes and I shall stand corrected and if not then this City’s development plan is certainly “ill planned" 

Honestly; there is no real mechanism to control land pricing on an island of what appears to be infinite demand. The higher the capacity of build allowed on a piece of land, higher the expected price of that land will be. Ultimately, it’s a matter of simple demand and supply economics. Hong Kong and Singapore face similar problems; but have set up norms for rewarding restricted social housing and critical infrastructure projects like schools and hospitals with a much higher FAR and/or ground coverage than given for free sale residential or commercial buildings. It’s an observation that slum dwellers rehabilitated in SRA towers generally occupied them for a statutory period then moved out to create a new ground level slum, while renting out the premises allocated to a family falling in the Low Income Group. Why so? Most say that they cannot adjust to living in apartments or don’t earn enough to pay for the monthly maintenance charges of utilities and facilities that they generally got for almost “free” in the slum. Relying on the average developer to come up with a high quality vertical slum alternative and/or making the owners of flats built on slum land subsidize the stay of their poor former slum neighbors is an idea which will certainly be labeled “Idiotic”.

There are many others who seem to share my thoughts - some headlines:
DON'T TOUCH AAREY - BMC's ambitious devpt plan set to cut Aarey to 14% its present size
Denser, vertical growth spells misery for citizens

Most suggestions missing: Activists
Include MbPT land in devpt plan, says citizens' group

DP will be a disaster for city, increase social disparities

P K Das

DON'T TOUCH AAREY - Minister, corporators cry foul, will oppose devpt

I would actually invite Mr. Arvind Kejriwal (the activist) to get his core team to study the DP keeping the Mumbai civic elections of 2017 in mind to figure out how this plan could be misused by those in power now and what safeguards need to be put in place to ensure that Mumbai becomes a world class international City.